The idea that Ukraine intentionally is going to damage the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility is ludicrous on its face for a variety of reasons that the Western Alliance and the rational world understands incredibly well.
However, the possibility that the Russians are going to sabotage the facility remains exceptionally high, and at this point, even likely, should the Ukrainians make significant territorial gains in their offensive in the coming days, weeks and months.
The world must be prepared for this eventuality. In fact, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) needs to put itself in a position to make sure that when that occurs, the IAEA is able to respond efficiently, effectively and rapidly.
They can do so now by placing the reactor facilities under their control through agreements between the two nations and the United Nations.
The UN could agree to pay for international engineers to come in and operate the facility and to monitor the nuclear material in the facility until a lasting peace is reached. Likewise, they could make the area around the facility a “operational free zone” for both militaries.
The fact that no international observers have been permitted inside the facility or all around it, means that the Russians are hiding information, believing that either the IAEA or the Ukrainians will use that information in an attempt to retake the facility or to damage it.
Clearly, the Russians are using the plant for tactical advantage – and maybe even strategic advantage. If it be the latter, then the world will be in an awful way if protections are not immediately put in place to guard the facility from being used by either side in the war.
Because the Ukrainians are not able to garner electricity from the facility, any agreement could allow this to continue until a peace agreement is signed by both parties.
Additionally, an accord could include a proviso that even if the Ukrainians take back all of the territory surrounding the facility, the plant could not be operated until a peace accord is executed. The Ukrainians would not be happy with this, but the world would be safe from either an intentional action by either party or an inadvertent action by the warring combatants.
The problem is that the Ukrainians would like to take the reactor back as soon as possible to restore power to millions of its citizens, and the Russians want to use it as a nuclear tool to deter the Ukrainian offensive.
Likewise, both parties undoubtedly will seek to use it as a propaganda weapon against the other in the event of a release of radiation.
This means that the IAEA needs a much different plan, where the only goal is nuclear safety and no release of contamination into the environment.
Alas, a negotiated arrangement brokered by the IAEA and the warring parties will not happen before the Ukrainian offensive moves closer to the reactor facilities.
Contingency planning and rapid operational response for the IAEA needs to be premised on the serious damage or even wholesale destruction of the plant and the release of nuclear material and fallout from the facility, which will need immediate remediation.
This remediation will need to come from trained, equipped and seasoned professionals from all over the world who are already prepared to immediately take charge of the situation.
These first responders will need to be transported and protected by an international, armed body, so that an immediate investigation can take place and so that lives and property can be protected as much as possible from the nuclear fallout that will arise.
These experts already know what to expect. They are gaming the situation right now, or at least they should be. They are aware of the amount of nuclear material and waste that is in the plant and the damage that it is capable of causing. They must be planning for this inevitable outcome.
If they are not doing so, they sure better get started, before it is too late.
dum spiro, spero 